Derby vs Cardiff prediction
England Championship · Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (56%). It gives Derby 56% at home, a draw 25% and Cardiff 19%, so its call is 1: Derby to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 44% / 27% / 29%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.7 for Derby and 0.9 for Cardiff; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 50%. Careful: there is little recent data on Cardiff, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Derby
Attack 9th of 24, defence 11th of 24 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Charlton 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Sheffield United 2026-05-02
- W 3-2 at QPR 2026-04-25
- L 1-2 at Norwich 2026-04-21
- W 1-0 v Oxford 2026-04-18
Cardiff
Attack 22nd of 24, defence 24th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Wrexham 2026-08-17
- L 2-4 at Norwich 2025-05-03
- D 0-0 v West Brom 2025-04-26
- D 1-1 v Oxford 2025-04-21
- L 0-2 at Sheffield United 2025-04-18
From 1116 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 22 Aug
- Birmingham vs Bristol City · FT 2–2
- Lincoln vs Portsmouth · FT 1–3
- Millwall vs Norwich · FT 3–0
- Wrexham vs Watford · FT 1–1
- West Ham vs Charlton · FT 1–2
- Southampton vs Stoke · FT 3–1
- Swansea vs Sheffield United · FT 0–0
- Preston vs Wolves · FT 1–3
- Blackburn vs Middlesbrough · FT 2–1
- QPR vs Bolton · FT 0–0