How Brit Predictor works
Brit Predictor gives a probability for every result of every game, in around 20 leagues, every day. Then it checks itself: after full time, every call is marked right or wrong, next to the bookmakers'.
The model
For each league, a Dixon-Coles model is fitted on the last three seasons of results. It learns an attack and a defence rating for every team and a home advantage, weighting recent matches more (a match a year old counts half). Those ratings give each side's expected goals, and from them the chance of every score: home win, draw, away win, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
It is refitted for each day using only matches played before the first kick-off, so it never sees the future.
The market
Next to the model is the market: the average bookmaker odds with their built-in margin removed, turned into probabilities. The market knows things the model doesn't (injuries, line-ups, motivation) and is usually more accurate. When the two disagree a lot, the game is flagged so you can look closer.
The calls: 1, X, 2 or double chance
- 1 home win, X draw, 2 away win: the result rated most likely.
- 1X, X2 or 12 (double chance) when the game is dicey, meaning the top two results are within 10 points. It's right if either result happens.
The model and the market each make their own call by the same rule.
Keeping score honestly
Calls are locked before kick-off and graded against what was shown, never a recalculation. Results come from ESPN within minutes of full time, with Fantasy Premier League and football-data.co.uk as back-ups. Every day's grades go into the public track record.
Team news
Premier League games show injuries and suspensions from the official Fantasy Premier League feed, with each player's role and who is next in line. La Liga games show injuries reported by AS, Marca and BBC Sport, read by an AI model that has to quote the article word for word. Team news is shown for context; it doesn't change the numbers.
Data sources
- football-data.co.uk: results, fixtures and bookmaker odds.
- ESPN scoreboard: same-day results.
- Fantasy Premier League: Premier League team news and results.
- AS, Marca, BBC Sport news feeds: La Liga injury reports.
Limits
The model only sees goals, so it misses line-ups, transfers and form swings the market picks up. Promoted teams have little data and are marked "little data". No prediction is a sure thing: even a 70% favourite loses three games in ten.