West Ham vs Derby prediction
England Championship · Saturday 5 September 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates West Ham to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives West Ham 47% at home, a draw 25% and Derby 27%, so its call is 1: West Ham to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 73% / 17% / 11%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.7 for West Ham and 1.3 for Derby; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on West Ham, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
West Ham
Attack 3rd of 24, defence 18th of 24 in the league.
- W 4-2 v Wolves 2026-09-01
- D 1-1 at Watford 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 v Charlton 2026-08-22
- D 2-2 at Burnley 2026-08-16
Derby
Attack 11th of 24, defence 11th of 24 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Portsmouth 2026-09-01
- L 0-3 v Swansea 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Cardiff 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 at Charlton 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Sheffield United 2026-05-02
From 1152 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 5 Sep
- Stoke vs Charlton · FT 4–0
- Preston vs Blackburn · FT 2–1
- Lincoln vs Southampton · FT 1–1
- Burnley vs Bristol City · FT 1–2
- Millwall vs Bolton · FT 4–0
- Portsmouth vs Cardiff · FT 2–0
- QPR vs Middlesbrough · FT 0–1
- Sheffield United vs Norwich · FT 1–3
- West Brom vs Watford · FT 1–0
- Swansea vs Wrexham · FT 0–0