Burnley vs Bristol City prediction
England Championship · Saturday 5 September 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burnley to win as the most likely result (53%). It gives Burnley 53% at home, a draw 27% and Bristol City 20%, so its call is 1: Burnley to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 49% / 26% / 25%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.6 for Burnley and 0.9 for Bristol City; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Burnley, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Burnley
Attack 6th of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Middlesbrough 2026-09-02
- L 1-4 at Norwich 2026-08-29
- L 1-3 at West Brom 2026-08-23
- D 2-2 v West Ham 2026-08-16
- W 3-1 v Millwall 2025-05-03
Bristol City
Attack 10th of 24, defence 12th of 24 in the league.
- W 3-1 at Preston 2026-09-01
- W 2-1 v Portsmouth 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 at Birmingham 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 v Millwall 2026-08-15
- W 2-0 v Stoke 2026-05-02
From 1152 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 5 Sep
- Stoke vs Charlton · FT 4–0
- Preston vs Blackburn · FT 2–1
- Lincoln vs Southampton · FT 1–1
- Millwall vs Bolton · FT 4–0
- Portsmouth vs Cardiff · FT 2–0
- QPR vs Middlesbrough · FT 0–1
- Sheffield United vs Norwich · FT 1–3
- West Brom vs Watford · FT 1–0
- West Ham vs Derby · FT 3–0
- Swansea vs Wrexham · FT 0–0