Stoke vs Charlton prediction
England Championship · Saturday 5 September 2026, 13:30 WAT
- Model called 1X ✓ (home win or draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Stoke to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Stoke 37% at home, a draw 33% and Charlton 30%, so its call is 1X: Stoke to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 48% / 28% / 24%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Stoke and 0.9 for Charlton; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 67%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Stoke
Attack 20th of 24, defence 14th of 24 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Norwich 2026-09-01
- L 1-4 at Wolves 2026-08-29
- L 1-3 at Southampton 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 v Swansea 2026-08-15
- L 0-2 at Bristol City 2026-05-02
Charlton
Attack 22nd of 24, defence 7th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 at West Brom 2026-09-02
- W 1-0 v Preston 2026-08-29
- W 2-1 at West Ham 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 v Derby 2026-08-15
- L 1-3 at Swansea 2026-05-02
From 1152 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 5 Sep
- Preston vs Blackburn · FT 2–1
- Lincoln vs Southampton · FT 1–1
- Burnley vs Bristol City · FT 1–2
- Millwall vs Bolton · FT 4–0
- Portsmouth vs Cardiff · FT 2–0
- QPR vs Middlesbrough · FT 0–1
- Sheffield United vs Norwich · FT 1–3
- West Brom vs Watford · FT 1–0
- West Ham vs Derby · FT 3–0
- Swansea vs Wrexham · FT 0–0