Swindon vs Port Vale prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Swindon to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Swindon 40% at home, a draw 26% and Port Vale 34%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 29% / 27% / 43%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Swindon and 1.2 for Port Vale; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 53%. Careful: there is little recent data on Port Vale, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 1140 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.