Exeter vs Accrington prediction
England League Two · Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Exeter to win as the most likely result (60%). It gives Exeter 60% at home, a draw 23% and Accrington 16%, so its call is 1: Exeter to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 48% / 27% / 25%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.7 for Exeter and 0.7 for Accrington; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on Exeter, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Exeter
Attack 8th of 24, defence 2nd of 24 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Grimsby 2026-08-15
Accrington
Attack 21st of 24, defence 16th of 24 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Colchester 2026-08-15
- L 0-3 at Oldham 2026-05-02
- D 3-3 v Crawley Town 2026-04-25
- D 2-2 at Swindon 2026-04-18
- L 1-2 at Colchester 2026-04-14
From 1116 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England League Two games on Sat 22 Aug
- Bristol Rvs vs Newport County · FT 5–3
- Salford vs Chesterfield · FT 0–1
- Walsall vs Grimsby · FT 0–0
- Shrewsbury vs Barnet · FT 1–3
- Rotherham vs York · FT 1–1
- Rochdale vs Crawley Town · FT 1–2
- Port Vale vs Tranmere · FT 1–1
- Crewe vs Northampton · FT 1–0
- Swindon vs Cheltenham · FT 2–1
- Colchester vs Oldham · FT 2–1
- Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham · FT 0–0