Burnley vs Derby prediction
England Championship · Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burnley to win as the most likely result (53%). It gives Burnley 53% at home, a draw 27% and Derby 20%, so its call is 1: Burnley to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 53% / 25% / 22%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.6 for Burnley and 0.9 for Derby; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Burnley, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Burnley
Attack 7th of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- L 1-3 at Swansea 2026-09-12
- D 1-1 at Wrexham 2026-09-08
- L 1-2 v Bristol City 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Middlesbrough 2026-09-02
- L 1-4 at Norwich 2026-08-29
Derby
Attack 14th of 24, defence 15th of 24 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Birmingham 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v West Brom 2026-09-09
- L 0-3 at West Ham 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 at Portsmouth 2026-09-01
- L 0-3 v Swansea 2026-08-29
From 1188 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 19 Sep
- Cardiff vs Charlton · FT 3–1
- Millwall vs West Ham · FT 2–2
- Stoke vs Sheffield United · FT 2–1
- Wrexham vs Southampton · FT 2–1
- QPR vs Preston · FT 2–2
- Portsmouth vs Blackburn · FT 2–2
- Lincoln vs Swansea · FT 1–2
- Birmingham vs Middlesbrough · FT 2–2