Dortmund vs Paderborn prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 12 September 2026, 15:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Dortmund to win as the most likely result (63%). It gives Dortmund 63% at home, a draw 23% and Paderborn 15%, so its call is 1: Dortmund to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 78% / 13% / 9%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dortmund and 0.8 for Paderborn; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 52%. Careful: there is little recent data on Paderborn, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Dortmund
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- W 3-2 at Hoffenheim 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 v Hamburg 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Werder Bremen 2026-05-16
- W 3-2 v Ein Frankfurt 2026-05-08
- L 0-1 at M'gladbach 2026-05-03
Paderborn
Attack 16th of 18, defence 5th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Freiburg 2026-09-05
- D 0-0 at Mainz 2026-08-29
From 631 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sat 12 Sep
- Augsburg vs Leverkusen · FT 2–2
- Freiburg vs M'gladbach · FT 5–0
- Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart · FT 2–1
- Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt · FT 1–3
- FC Koln vs Werder Bremen · FT 1–1