Norwich vs Burnley prediction
England Championship · Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burnley to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives Norwich 27% at home, a draw 29% and Burnley 43%, so its call is 2: Burnley to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 48% / 25% / 27%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Norwich and 1.4 for Burnley; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on Burnley, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Norwich
Attack 6th of 24, defence 15th of 24 in the league.
- L 0-3 at Millwall 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 v West Brom 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 at Hull 2026-05-02
- D 1-1 v Swansea 2026-04-25
- W 2-1 v Derby 2026-04-21
Burnley
Attack 5th of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- L 1-3 at West Brom 2026-08-23
- D 2-2 v West Ham 2026-08-16
- W 3-1 v Millwall 2025-05-03
- W 5-0 at QPR 2025-04-26
- W 2-1 v Sheffield United 2025-04-21
From 1129 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 29 Aug
- Derby vs Swansea · FT 0–3
- Middlesbrough vs West Brom · FT 3–1
- Wolves vs Stoke · FT 4–1
- Watford vs West Ham · FT 1–1
- Southampton vs Millwall · FT 5–1
- Charlton vs Preston · FT 1–0
- Bolton vs Lincoln · FT 0–1
- Bristol City vs Portsmouth · FT 2–1
- Blackburn vs QPR · FT 1–2
- Cardiff vs Sheffield United · FT 2–2