Bolton vs Lincoln prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Bolton to win as the most likely result (49%). It gives Bolton 49% at home, a draw 28% and Lincoln 23%, so its call is 1: Bolton to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 39% / 28% / 33%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bolton and 1.0 for Lincoln; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Bolton, Lincoln, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 1129 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.