Derby vs Swansea prediction
England Championship · Saturday 29 August 2026, 13:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives Derby 43% at home, a draw 29% and Swansea 28%, so its call is 1: Derby to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 40% / 28% / 31%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.4 for Derby and 1.1 for Swansea; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Derby
Attack 10th of 24, defence 12th of 24 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Cardiff 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 at Charlton 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Sheffield United 2026-05-02
- W 3-2 at QPR 2026-04-25
- L 1-2 at Norwich 2026-04-21
Swansea
Attack 14th of 24, defence 8th of 24 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Sheffield United 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 at Stoke 2026-08-15
- W 3-1 v Charlton 2026-05-02
- D 1-1 at Norwich 2026-04-25
- W 2-1 at QPR 2026-04-21
From 1129 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 29 Aug
- Middlesbrough vs West Brom · FT 3–1
- Wolves vs Stoke · FT 4–1
- Norwich vs Burnley · FT 4–1
- Watford vs West Ham · FT 1–1
- Southampton vs Millwall · FT 5–1
- Charlton vs Preston · FT 1–0
- Bolton vs Lincoln · FT 0–1
- Bristol City vs Portsmouth · FT 2–1
- Blackburn vs QPR · FT 1–2
- Cardiff vs Sheffield United · FT 2–2