Colchester vs Exeter prediction
England League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called X ✓ (draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates a draw as the most likely result (46%). It gives Colchester 32% at home, a draw 46% and Exeter 22%, so its call is X: a draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 43% / 29% / 29%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.6 for Colchester and 0.4 for Exeter; the single most likely score is 0-0. Careful: there is little recent data on Exeter, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Colchester
Attack 13th of 24, defence 6th of 24 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Newport County 2026-10-10
- D 2-2 at Shrewsbury 2026-09-26
- D 1-1 v Cheltenham 2026-09-19
- D 1-1 v Crewe 2026-09-12
- L 1-3 at Swindon 2026-09-05
Exeter
Attack 23rd of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Shrewsbury 2026-10-10
- W 1-0 v Rotherham 2026-10-03
- L 0-1 at Bristol Rvs 2026-09-26
- D 0-0 v Tranmere 2026-09-19
- L 0-1 at Port Vale 2026-09-12
From 1218 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England League Two games on Sat 17 Oct
- Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rvs · FT 1–0
- Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham · FT 2–0
- Salford vs Crawley Town · FT 2–1
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield · FT 1–0
- Swindon vs Walsall · FT 1–1
- Tranmere vs Barnet · FT 1–2
- Oldham vs Cheltenham · FT 4–1
- Grimsby vs Northampton · FT 0–2
- Accrington vs Gillingham · FT 3–1
- Newport County vs York · FT 1–1
- Crewe vs Rochdale · FT 3–2