Paderborn vs Freiburg prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Paderborn to win as the most likely result (48%). It gives Paderborn 48% at home, a draw 26% and Freiburg 26%, so its call is 1: Paderborn to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 26% / 24% / 50%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.6 for Paderborn and 1.1 for Freiburg; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 51%. Careful: there is little recent data on Paderborn, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Paderborn
Attack 11th of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Mainz 2026-08-29
Freiburg
Attack 9th of 18, defence 13th of 18 in the league.
- W 4-1 v Werder Bremen 2026-08-30
- W 4-1 v RB Leipzig 2026-05-16
- L 2-3 at Hamburg 2026-05-10
- D 1-1 v Wolfsburg 2026-05-03
- L 0-4 at Dortmund 2026-04-26
From 622 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Hoffenheim vs Dortmund · FT 2–3
- Leverkusen vs Union Berlin · FT 4–0
- M'gladbach vs Elversberg · FT 3–4
- Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig · FT 3–1
- Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich · FT 0–0