Hoffenheim vs Dortmund prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:30 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Dortmund to win as the most likely result (52%). It gives Hoffenheim 25% at home, a draw 23% and Dortmund 52%, so its call is 2: Dortmund to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 39% / 24% / 37%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hoffenheim and 2.0 for Dortmund; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 66%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Hoffenheim
Attack 8th of 18, defence 16th of 18 in the league.
- L 2-3 at FC Koln 2026-08-29
- L 0-4 at M'gladbach 2026-05-16
- W 1-0 v Werder Bremen 2026-05-09
- D 3-3 v Stuttgart 2026-05-02
- W 2-1 at Hamburg 2026-04-25
Dortmund
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- W 2-0 v Hamburg 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Werder Bremen 2026-05-16
- W 3-2 v Ein Frankfurt 2026-05-08
- L 0-1 at M'gladbach 2026-05-03
- W 4-0 v Freiburg 2026-04-26
From 622 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Leverkusen vs Union Berlin · FT 4–0
- M'gladbach vs Elversberg · FT 3–4
- Paderborn vs Freiburg · FT 0–1
- Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig · FT 3–1
- Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich · FT 0–0