York vs Exeter prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Exeter to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives York 31% at home, a draw 27% and Exeter 43%, so its call is 2: Exeter to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 22% / 17%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for York and 1.3 for Exeter; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on York, Exeter, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 1128 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.