Derby vs Stoke prediction
England Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:00 WAT
Full timeDerby 0–1 StokeResult 2
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
DerbyDrawStoke
Model 1 ✗
44%28%28%
Market 12 ✓
33%28%39%
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (44%). It gives Derby 44% at home, a draw 28% and Stoke 28%, so its call is 1: Derby to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 33% / 28% / 39%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Derby and 1.1 for Stoke; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals45%
Both teams score50%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Derby
Attack 16th of 24, defence 15th of 24 in the league.
LDDLL
- L 1-4 at QPR 2026-10-14
- D 1-1 v Wrexham 2026-10-10
- D 1-1 at Burnley 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Birmingham 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v West Brom 2026-09-09
Stoke
Attack 18th of 24, defence 14th of 24 in the league.
LWWWD
- L 2-3 v Middlesbrough 2026-10-13
- W 2-1 at Bolton 2026-10-10
- W 2-1 v Sheffield United 2026-09-19
- W 2-1 at Watford 2026-09-12
- D 1-1 at Cardiff 2026-09-08
From 1224 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 17 Oct
- Middlesbrough vs Cardiff · FT 2–2
- Millwall vs Lincoln · FT 2–2
- Watford vs Charlton · FT 2–0
- Wrexham vs Preston · FT 4–1
- Swansea vs West Ham · FT 0–1
- Southampton vs Bolton · FT 0–0
- West Brom vs Blackburn · FT 3–2
- Bristol City vs Sheffield United · FT 0–1
- Birmingham vs QPR · FT 3–0
- Norwich vs Portsmouth · FT 0–1