Carrarese vs Benevento prediction
Italy Serie B · Saturday 19 September 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Carrarese to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives Carrarese 46% at home, a draw 30% and Benevento 25%, so its call is 1: Carrarese to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 31% / 28% / 41%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Carrarese and 1.0 for Benevento; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 58%. Careful: there is little recent data on Benevento, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Carrarese
Attack 15th of 20, defence 12th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Catanzaro 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v Empoli 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 at Ascoli 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 v Mantova 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 at Virtus Entella 2026-05-08
Benevento
Attack 16th of 20, defence 16th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Verona 2026-09-11
- L 0-1 at Ascoli 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Sudtirol 2026-08-30
- L 1-2 v Modena 2026-08-22
From 801 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie B games on Sat 19 Sep
- Cremonese vs Virtus Entella · FT 0–0
- Palermo vs Padova · FT 2–1
- Sampdoria vs Catanzaro · FT 2–1
- Ascoli vs Avellino · FT 3–1