Ascoli vs Avellino prediction
Italy Serie B · Saturday 19 September 2026, 19:30 WAT
- Model called 1X ✓ (home win or draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ascoli to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Ascoli 39% at home, a draw 32% and Avellino 29%, so its call is 1X: Ascoli to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 46% / 28% / 25%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ascoli and 1.0 for Avellino; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 64%. Careful: there is little recent data on Ascoli, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ascoli
Attack 19th of 20, defence 5th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Padova 2026-09-12
- W 1-0 v Benevento 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Carrarese 2026-08-29
- W 2-1 at Verona 2026-08-23
Avellino
Attack 10th of 20, defence 9th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Palermo 2026-09-13
- W 1-0 at Modena 2026-09-06
- W 3-0 v Vicenza 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 v Arezzo 2026-08-22
- W 1-0 v Modena 2026-05-08
From 801 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie B games on Sat 19 Sep
- Carrarese vs Benevento · FT 0–1
- Cremonese vs Virtus Entella · FT 0–0
- Palermo vs Padova · FT 2–1
- Sampdoria vs Catanzaro · FT 2–1