Valladolid vs Oviedo prediction
Spain Segunda · Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:15 WAT
- Model called X2 ✓ (draw or away win): called it
- Market called 1X ✗ (home win or draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Oviedo to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Valladolid 28% at home, a draw 31% and Oviedo 40%, so its call is X2: Oviedo to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 38% / 31% / 31%, a call of 1X — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.8 for Valladolid and 1.1 for Oviedo; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 70%. Careful: there is little recent data on Oviedo, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Valladolid
Attack 21st of 22, defence 14th of 22 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Andorra 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 at Cadiz 2026-08-30
- L 0-1 at Eibar 2026-08-23
- L 0-2 at Mallorca 2026-08-15
- L 0-1 at Almeria 2026-05-31
Oviedo
Attack 14th of 22, defence 3rd of 22 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Burgos 2026-09-06
- W 1-0 at Albacete 2026-08-29
- L 0-1 v Leganes 2026-08-22
- D 0-0 v Granada 2026-08-15
- W 2-1 v Cadiz 2025-06-01
From 974 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain Segunda games on Sun 13 Sep
- Sp Gijon vs Eldense · FT 0–1
- Mallorca vs Sabadell · FT 2–0
- Tenerife vs Leganes · FT 2–0