Swansea vs Burnley prediction
England Championship · Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burnley to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Swansea 32% at home, a draw 32% and Burnley 37%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 46% / 27% / 27%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Swansea and 1.1 for Burnley; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 63%. Careful: there is little recent data on Burnley, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Swansea
Attack 14th of 24, defence 6th of 24 in the league.
- L 1-3 at Southampton 2026-09-08
- D 0-0 v Wrexham 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 v Watford 2026-09-01
- W 3-0 at Derby 2026-08-29
- D 0-0 v Sheffield United 2026-08-22
Burnley
Attack 8th of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Wrexham 2026-09-08
- L 1-2 v Bristol City 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Middlesbrough 2026-09-02
- L 1-4 at Norwich 2026-08-29
- L 1-3 at West Brom 2026-08-23
From 1174 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 12 Sep
- Derby vs Birmingham · FT 1–2
- West Brom vs QPR · FT 1–1
- Bolton vs Cardiff · FT 1–0
- Blackburn vs Millwall · FT 3–1
- Charlton vs Portsmouth · FT 0–0
- Middlesbrough vs Norwich · FT 4–3
- Preston vs Lincoln · FT 0–1
- Southampton vs Bristol City · FT 4–1
- Watford vs Stoke · FT 1–2