Derby vs Birmingham prediction
England Championship · Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Derby 39% at home, a draw 30% and Birmingham 31%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 29% / 27% / 44%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Derby and 1.1 for Birmingham; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Derby
Attack 12th of 24, defence 13th of 24 in the league.
- L 0-1 v West Brom 2026-09-09
- L 0-3 at West Ham 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 at Portsmouth 2026-09-01
- L 0-3 v Swansea 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Cardiff 2026-08-22
Birmingham
Attack 13th of 24, defence 7th of 24 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Norwich 2026-09-09
- D 2-2 v Wolves 2026-09-06
- D 1-1 v Southampton 2026-09-01
- W 2-1 at Wrexham 2026-08-28
- D 2-2 v Bristol City 2026-08-22
From 1174 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 12 Sep
- West Brom vs QPR · FT 1–1
- Bolton vs Cardiff · FT 1–0
- Blackburn vs Millwall · FT 3–1
- Charlton vs Portsmouth · FT 0–0
- Middlesbrough vs Norwich · FT 4–3
- Preston vs Lincoln · FT 0–1
- Southampton vs Bristol City · FT 4–1
- Swansea vs Burnley · FT 3–1
- Watford vs Stoke · FT 1–2