Hull vs Aston Villa prediction
England Premier League · Saturday 5 September 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Hull to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives Hull 47% at home, a draw 29% and Aston Villa 24%, so its call is 1: Hull to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 23% / 26% / 51%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hull and 1.0 for Aston Villa; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on Hull, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Hull
Attack 11th of 20, defence 3rd of 20 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Coventry 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 v Man United 2026-08-22
Aston Villa
Attack 10th of 20, defence 11th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Arsenal 2026-08-31
- L 0-4 at Brighton 2026-08-23
- W 2-1 at Man City 2026-05-24
- W 4-2 v Liverpool 2026-05-15
- D 2-2 at Burnley 2026-05-10
From 781 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More England Premier League games on Sat 5 Sep
- Newcastle vs Bournemouth · FT 2–2
- Nott'm Forest vs Tottenham · FT 0–0
- Man City vs Coventry · FT 1–0
- Brighton vs Leeds · FT 1–1
- Brentford vs Sunderland · FT 1–1
- Fulham vs Crystal Palace · FT 2–3