Portsmouth vs Derby prediction
England Championship · Tuesday 1 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Portsmouth to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Portsmouth 37% at home, a draw 28% and Derby 36%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 47% / 28% / 26%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Portsmouth and 1.3 for Derby; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 51%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Portsmouth
Attack 15th of 24, defence 21st of 24 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Bristol City 2026-08-29
- W 3-1 at Lincoln 2026-08-22
- L 1-3 v QPR 2026-08-15
- D 1-1 v Birmingham 2026-05-02
- W 3-1 at Stoke 2026-04-25
Derby
Attack 11th of 24, defence 13th of 24 in the league.
- L 0-3 v Swansea 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Cardiff 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 at Charlton 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Sheffield United 2026-05-02
- W 3-2 at QPR 2026-04-25
From 1140 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Tue 1 Sep
- Lincoln vs Blackburn · FT 0–0
- Preston vs Bristol City · FT 1–3
- Sheffield United vs Bolton · FT 3–2
- Swansea vs Watford · FT 2–0
- West Ham vs Wolves · FT 4–2
- Birmingham vs Southampton · FT 1–1
- Stoke vs Norwich · FT 1–0