Lorient vs Troyes prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 29 August 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Lorient to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Lorient 41% at home, a draw 29% and Troyes 30%, so its call is 1: Lorient to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 50% / 28% / 22%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lorient and 1.1 for Troyes; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Lorient
Attack 10th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Nice 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 v Le Havre 2026-05-17
- W 4-0 at Metz 2026-05-10
- D 2-2 at Paris SG 2026-05-02
- L 2-3 v Strasbourg 2026-04-26
Troyes
Attack 15th of 18, defence 4th of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Paris FC 2026-08-22
From 622 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sat 29 Aug
- Strasbourg vs Lens · FT 2–1
- Auxerre vs Angers · FT 1–3
- Brest vs Toulouse · FT 2–2
- Lyon vs Le Havre · FT 1–1