Girona vs Las Palmas prediction
Spain Segunda · Saturday 29 August 2026, 21:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Las Palmas to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Girona 35% at home, a draw 28% and Las Palmas 37%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 57% / 24% / 19%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Girona and 1.2 for Las Palmas; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 60%. Careful: there is little recent data on Girona, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Girona
Attack 8th of 22, defence 11th of 22 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Cordoba 2026-08-21
- D 1-1 v Leganes 2026-08-16
Las Palmas
Attack 5th of 22, defence 2nd of 22 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Ceuta 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 v Albacete 2026-08-16
- W 2-1 at La Coruna 2026-05-31
- D 1-1 v Zaragoza 2026-05-24
- W 2-1 at Almeria 2026-05-16
From 947 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain Segunda games on Sat 29 Aug
- Sabadell vs Almeria · FT 1–0
- Albacete vs Oviedo · FT 0–1
- Leganes vs Eldense · FT 1–0