Ascoli vs Carrarese prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Ascoli to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Ascoli 39% at home, a draw 30% and Carrarese 30%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 52% / 26% / 22%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ascoli and 1.1 for Carrarese; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 56%. Careful: there is little recent data on Ascoli, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 771 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.