Venezia vs Lecce prediction
Italy Serie A · Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 1X ✗ (home win or draw): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Venezia to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Venezia 37% at home, a draw 33% and Lecce 30%, so its call is 1X: Venezia to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 54% / 26% / 20%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Venezia and 0.8 for Lecce; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 73%. Careful: there is little recent data on Venezia, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Venezia
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 2-3 v Juventus 2025-05-25
- L 0-3 at Cagliari 2025-05-18
- W 2-1 v Fiorentina 2025-05-12
- D 1-1 at Torino 2025-05-02
- L 0-2 v Milan 2025-04-27
Lecce
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- W 1-0 v Genoa 2026-05-24
- W 3-2 at Sassuolo 2026-05-17
- L 0-1 v Juventus 2026-05-09
- W 2-1 at Pisa 2026-05-01
- D 0-0 at Verona 2026-04-25
From 764 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sun 23 Aug
- Frosinone vs Juventus · FT 0–1
- Atalanta vs Sassuolo · FT 2–1
- Torino vs Milan · FT 1–2