Castellon vs Sabadell prediction
Spain Segunda · Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Castellon to win as the most likely result (48%). It gives Castellon 48% at home, a draw 26% and Sabadell 26%, so its call is 1: Castellon to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 57% / 25% / 18%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Castellon and 1.0 for Sabadell; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 54%. Careful: there is little recent data on Sabadell, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Castellon
Attack 2nd of 22, defence 14th of 22 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Sociedad B 2026-08-14
- W 2-1 v Eibar 2026-05-31
- W 1-0 at Huesca 2026-05-24
- D 1-1 v Cadiz 2026-05-15
- D 1-1 at Ceuta 2026-05-09
Sabadell
Attack 15th of 22, defence 6th of 22 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Sp Gijon 2026-08-17
From 940 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain Segunda games on Sun 23 Aug
- Eibar vs Valladolid · FT 1–0
- Sp Gijon vs Burgos · FT 1–0
- Tenerife vs Almeria · FT 1–0