Troyes vs Paris FC prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 22 August 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Troyes to win as the most likely result (50%). It gives Troyes 50% at home, a draw 24% and Paris FC 26%, so its call is 1: Troyes to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 28% / 26% / 45%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.8 for Troyes and 1.3 for Paris FC; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 60%. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Troyes
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
No recent league games.
Paris FC
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- W 2-1 v Paris SG 2026-05-17
- L 1-2 at Rennes 2026-05-10
- W 4-0 v Brest 2026-05-03
- L 0-1 v Lille 2026-04-26
- W 3-1 at Metz 2026-04-19
From 613 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sat 22 Aug
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- Le Mans vs Brest · FT 2–2
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