Toulouse vs Lyon prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 22 August 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Lyon to win as the most likely result (38%). It gives Toulouse 35% at home, a draw 27% and Lyon 38%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 42% / 27% / 30%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.3 for Toulouse and 1.4 for Lyon; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 51%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Toulouse
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- D 0-0 at Nantes 2026-05-17
- W 2-1 v Lyon 2026-05-10
- W 2-1 at Strasbourg 2026-05-03
- D 2-2 v Monaco 2026-04-25
- L 2-3 at Lens 2026-04-17
Lyon
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 0-4 v Lens 2026-05-17
- L 1-2 at Toulouse 2026-05-10
- W 4-2 v Rennes 2026-05-03
- W 3-2 v Auxerre 2026-04-25
- W 2-1 at Paris SG 2026-04-19
From 613 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sat 22 Aug
- Lens vs Auxerre · FT 5–2
- Le Mans vs Brest · FT 2–2
- Nice vs Lorient · FT 0–0
- Troyes vs Paris FC · FT 0–0