Avellino vs Arezzo prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Arezzo to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Avellino 33% at home, a draw 28% and Arezzo 39%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 44% / 29% / 26%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Avellino and 1.5 for Arezzo; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Arezzo, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 761 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.