Charlton vs Derby prediction
England Championship · Saturday 15 August 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (38%). It gives Charlton 31% at home, a draw 31% and Derby 38%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 36% / 30% / 34%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.0 for Charlton and 1.2 for Derby; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 63%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Charlton
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 1-3 at Swansea 2026-05-02
- W 2-1 v Hull 2026-04-25
- L 1-2 v Ipswich 2026-04-22
- D 1-1 at Sheffield Weds 2026-04-18
- L 1-2 v Preston 2026-04-11
Derby
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 1-2 v Sheffield United 2026-05-02
- W 3-2 at QPR 2026-04-25
- L 1-2 at Norwich 2026-04-21
- W 1-0 v Oxford 2026-04-18
- L 1-2 at Southampton 2026-04-11
From 1105 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Sat 15 Aug
- Bolton vs Preston · FT 2–1
- Portsmouth vs QPR · FT 1–3
- Norwich vs West Brom · FT 1–2
- Stoke vs Swansea · FT 1–2
- Bristol City vs Millwall · FT 0–2
- Middlesbrough vs Lincoln · FT 2–1
- Sheffield United vs Birmingham · FT 0–0