Toulouse vs Troyes prediction
France Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026, 17:15 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Toulouse to win as the most likely result (77%). It gives Toulouse 77% at home, a draw 15% and Troyes 7%, so its call is 1: Toulouse to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 62% / 21% / 17%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.5 for Toulouse and 0.7 for Troyes; the single most likely score is 2-0. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Toulouse
Attack 11th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- W 3-0 at Le Mans 2026-10-16
- D 2-2 at Monaco 2026-10-10
- W 3-2 v Le Havre 2026-09-19
- D 2-2 at Lorient 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v Lille 2026-09-03
Troyes
Attack 18th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-3 v Lens 2026-10-17
- L 0-2 v Marseille 2026-10-11
- L 0-2 at Angers 2026-09-19
- L 0-2 at Lille 2026-09-13
- L 2-6 v Strasbourg 2026-09-06
From 677 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sun 25 Oct
- Monaco vs Lille · FT 1–1
- Rennes vs Strasbourg · FT 3–0
- Auxerre vs Le Mans · FT 1–1
- Angers vs Lorient · FT 0–0
- Marseille vs Le Havre · FT 4–3