Monaco vs Lille prediction
France Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Monaco to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Monaco 40% at home, a draw 28% and Lille 32%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 51% / 26% / 23%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Monaco and 1.2 for Lille; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Monaco
Attack 4th of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Lorient 2026-10-18
- D 2-2 v Toulouse 2026-10-10
- W 2-1 v Lens 2026-09-18
- D 1-1 at Strasbourg 2026-09-12
- W 2-1 at Paris SG 2026-09-04
Lille
Attack 12th of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Brest 2026-10-17
- W 1-0 v Le Havre 2026-10-10
- L 1-2 at Nice 2026-09-20
- W 2-0 v Troyes 2026-09-13
- W 1-0 at Toulouse 2026-09-03
From 677 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sun 25 Oct
- Toulouse vs Troyes · FT 0–0
- Rennes vs Strasbourg · FT 3–0
- Auxerre vs Le Mans · FT 1–1
- Angers vs Lorient · FT 0–0
- Marseille vs Le Havre · FT 4–3