Malaga vs Sociedad prediction
Spain La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sociedad to win as the most likely result (52%). It gives Malaga 19% at home, a draw 29% and Sociedad 52%, so its call is 2: Sociedad to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 28% / 26% / 46%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.7 for Malaga and 1.4 for Sociedad; the single most likely score is 0-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Malaga, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Malaga
Attack 20th of 20, defence 17th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Espanol 2026-10-09
- L 0-1 at Getafe 2026-09-20
- L 1-3 v Villarreal 2026-09-17
- D 1-1 at Celta 2026-09-13
- D 0-0 v Levante 2026-09-06
Sociedad
Attack 7th of 20, defence 18th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-2 v La Coruna 2026-10-11
- W 3-2 at Valencia 2026-09-20
- L 0-3 v Ath Madrid 2026-09-13
- W 3-2 at Elche 2026-09-07
- D 0-0 v Celta 2026-09-03
From 843 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sun 18 Oct
- Osasuna vs Santander · FT 2–0
- Celta vs Alaves · FT 2–1
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla · FT 4–1