Mainz vs Leverkusen prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:30 WAT
Full timeMainz 3–4 LeverkusenResult 2
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
MainzDrawLeverkusen
Model 2 ✓
31%25%44%
Market 2 ✓
31%25%44%
Brit Predictor's model rates Leverkusen to win as the most likely result (44%). It gives Mainz 31% at home, a draw 25% and Leverkusen 44%, so its call is 2: Leverkusen to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 31% / 25% / 44%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mainz and 1.7 for Leverkusen; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.4 – 1.7
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals59%
Both teams score61%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Mainz
Attack 10th of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
WLWDW
- W 4-3 at M'gladbach 2026-09-19
- L 1-3 v Ein Frankfurt 2026-09-12
- W 5-0 at Hamburg 2026-09-06
- D 0-0 v Paderborn 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 at Heidenheim 2026-05-16
Leverkusen
Attack 4th of 18, defence 5th of 18 in the league.
WDWLD
- W 2-0 v RB Leipzig 2026-09-20
- D 2-2 at Augsburg 2026-09-12
- W 4-0 v Union Berlin 2026-09-05
- L 2-3 at Elversberg 2026-08-29
- D 1-1 v Hamburg 2026-05-16
From 649 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sat 10 Oct
- Union Berlin vs Elversberg · FT 1–0
- Paderborn vs Stuttgart · FT 0–2
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich · FT 2–2
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburg · FT 2–3
- RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt · FT 6–0