Porto vs Benfica prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 20 September 2026, 21:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Porto to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Porto 40% at home, a draw 27% and Benfica 33%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 34% / 28% / 38%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.3 for Porto and 1.1 for Benfica; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Porto
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 4-1 at Casa Pia 2026-09-12
- W 2-1 v Moreirense 2026-09-04
- W 3-0 at Academico Viseu 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 v Arouca 2026-08-23
- W 2-0 at Rio Ave 2026-08-15
Benfica
Attack 2nd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Gil Vicente 2026-09-13
- W 4-0 at Moreirense 2026-09-09
- W 3-0 at Maritimo 2026-09-05
- W 2-1 v Estoril 2026-08-31
- W 7-0 at Casa Pia 2026-08-17
From 669 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 20 Sep
- Guimaraes vs Moreirense · FT 1–1
- Estrela vs Academico Viseu · FT 0–2
- Estoril vs Casa Pia · FT 1–2
- Santa Clara vs Sp Braga · FT 0–0