Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 20 September 2026, 16:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Guimaraes to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives Guimaraes 46% at home, a draw 26% and Moreirense 28%, so its call is 1: Guimaraes to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 65% / 21% / 13%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Guimaraes and 1.0 for Moreirense; the single most likely score is 1-0.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Guimaraes
Attack 11th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Academico Viseu 2026-09-12
- D 0-0 v Casa Pia 2026-09-06
- L 0-1 at Sp Braga 2026-08-31
- W 1-0 v Nacional 2026-08-23
- L 2-3 at Sp Lisbon 2026-08-14
Moreirense
Attack 12th of 18, defence 12th of 18 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Maritimo 2026-09-14
- L 0-4 v Benfica 2026-09-09
- L 1-2 at Porto 2026-09-04
- W 1-0 at Casa Pia 2026-08-30
- L 0-4 at Arouca 2026-08-16
From 669 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 20 Sep
- Estrela vs Academico Viseu · FT 0–2
- Estoril vs Casa Pia · FT 1–2
- Santa Clara vs Sp Braga · FT 0–0
- Porto vs Benfica · FT 3–1