Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction
Italy Serie A · Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:30 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Napoli to win as the most likely result (53%). It gives Fiorentina 22% at home, a draw 25% and Napoli 53%, so its call is 2: Napoli to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 30% / 28% / 42%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.9 for Fiorentina and 1.6 for Napoli; the single most likely score is 0-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Fiorentina
Attack 11th of 20, defence 14th of 20 in the league.
- W 4-2 at Venezia 2026-09-11
- L 1-2 v Torino 2026-09-05
- L 0-3 v Frosinone 2026-08-29
- L 0-4 at Roma 2026-08-24
- D 1-1 v Atalanta 2026-05-22
Napoli
Attack 6th of 20, defence 2nd of 20 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Bologna 2026-09-13
- L 2-3 at Inter 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 v Como 2026-08-30
- W 2-0 at Genoa 2026-08-22
- W 1-0 v Udinese 2026-05-24
From 805 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sun 20 Sep
- Parma vs Genoa · FT 2–1
- Frosinone vs Como · FT 2–0
- Juventus vs Atalanta · FT 2–0
- Milan vs Lecce · FT 3–0