Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction
England Premier League · Saturday 19 September 2026, 13:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Aston Villa to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Tottenham 32% at home, a draw 29% and Aston Villa 40%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 51% / 25% / 24%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tottenham and 1.4 for Aston Villa; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 51%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Tottenham
Attack 15th of 20, defence 19th of 20 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Everton 2026-09-12
- D 0-0 at Nott'm Forest 2026-09-05
- L 0-2 v Newcastle 2026-08-29
- L 0-3 at Brentford 2026-08-22
- W 1-0 v Everton 2026-05-24
Aston Villa
Attack 10th of 20, defence 10th of 20 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Nott'm Forest 2026-09-12
- D 0-0 at Hull 2026-09-05
- L 0-1 v Arsenal 2026-08-31
- L 0-4 at Brighton 2026-08-23
- W 2-1 at Man City 2026-05-24
From 801 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More England Premier League games on Sat 19 Sep
- Brighton vs Arsenal · FT 3–0
- Everton vs Ipswich · FT 1–0
- Newcastle vs Hull · FT 2–1
- Nott'm Forest vs Coventry · FT 0–1