Sp Lisbon vs Arouca prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 19 September 2026, 21:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sp Lisbon to win as the most likely result (84%). It gives Sp Lisbon 84% at home, a draw 10% and Arouca 6%, so its call is 1: Sp Lisbon to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 85% / 10% / 5%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 3.2 for Sp Lisbon and 0.8 for Arouca; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 76%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Sp Lisbon
Attack 1st of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Famalicao 2026-09-13
- W 2-0 v Nacional 2026-09-05
- W 4-0 at Rio Ave 2026-08-28
- W 3-1 v Alverca 2026-08-22
- W 3-2 v Guimaraes 2026-08-14
Arouca
Attack 6th of 18, defence 13th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Santa Clara 2026-09-13
- D 0-0 at Estoril 2026-09-07
- W 2-1 v Maritimo 2026-08-29
- L 0-2 at Porto 2026-08-23
- W 4-0 v Moreirense 2026-08-16
From 665 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 19 Sep
- Gil Vicente vs Maritimo · FT 1–1
- Nacional vs Famalicao · FT 0–4
- Alverca vs Rio Ave · FT 1–0