Ath Bilbao vs Alaves prediction
Spain La Liga · Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:15 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ath Bilbao to win as the most likely result (49%). It gives Ath Bilbao 49% at home, a draw 27% and Alaves 25%, so its call is 1: Ath Bilbao to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 24% / 15%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ath Bilbao and 0.9 for Alaves; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ath Bilbao
Attack 12th of 20, defence 5th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Elche 2026-09-12
- W 3-0 v Ath Madrid 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 at Celta 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 at Barcelona 2026-08-27
- L 1-3 v Sevilla 2026-08-22
Alaves
Attack 14th of 20, defence 10th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Valencia 2026-09-15
- L 1-2 at Santander 2026-09-12
- W 5-2 v Osasuna 2026-09-06
- W 1-0 v Villarreal 2026-08-28
- D 1-1 at Vallecano 2026-08-20
From 820 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sat 19 Sep
- Osasuna vs Vallecano · FT 1–1
- Celta vs Santander · FT 5–0
- Sevilla vs Barcelona · FT 1–3