Rio Ave vs Estrela prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Monday 14 September 2026, 19:45 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Estrela to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Rio Ave 37% at home, a draw 26% and Estrela 37%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 33% / 29% / 38%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rio Ave and 1.3 for Estrela; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 50%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Rio Ave
Attack 17th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-4 at Santa Clara 2026-09-06
- L 0-4 v Sp Lisbon 2026-08-28
- W 2-0 at Estoril 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 v Porto 2026-08-15
- L 0-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-08-09
Estrela
Attack 10th of 18, defence 14th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Sp Braga 2026-09-10
- D 2-2 v Famalicao 2026-09-05
- W 3-2 at Nacional 2026-08-30
- D 2-2 at Alverca 2026-08-15
- D 2-2 v Sp Lisbon 2026-08-08
From 662 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Mon 14 Sep
- Moreirense vs Maritimo · FT 3–1
- Sp Braga vs Estoril · FT 1–0