Santander vs Alaves prediction
Spain La Liga · Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Santander to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives Santander 43% at home, a draw 24% and Alaves 33%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 37% / 27% / 37%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.6 for Santander and 1.4 for Alaves; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 56%. Careful: there is little recent data on Santander, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Santander
Attack 8th of 20, defence 20th of 20 in the league.
- L 2-3 at Vallecano 2026-09-05
- W 3-2 v Elche 2026-08-28
- L 0-1 at Getafe 2026-08-23
- D 2-2 v Villarreal 2026-08-16
Alaves
Attack 13th of 20, defence 10th of 20 in the league.
- W 5-2 v Osasuna 2026-09-06
- W 1-0 v Villarreal 2026-08-28
- D 1-1 at Vallecano 2026-08-20
- W 3-0 v Getafe 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Vallecano 2026-05-23
From 802 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sat 12 Sep
- Osasuna vs Espanol · FT 0–2
- Ath Bilbao vs Elche · FT 1–1
- Real Madrid vs Vallecano · FT 4–1