Real Madrid vs Vallecano prediction
Spain La Liga · Saturday 12 September 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Real Madrid to win as the most likely result (72%). It gives Real Madrid 72% at home, a draw 18% and Vallecano 11%, so its call is 1: Real Madrid to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 86% / 9% / 5%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for Vallecano; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 55%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Real Madrid
Attack 2nd of 20, defence 1st of 20 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Betis 2026-09-04
- W 4-0 v Malaga 2026-08-30
- W 4-1 v Sociedad 2026-08-26
- W 2-1 at Espanol 2026-08-22
- W 4-2 v Ath Bilbao 2026-05-23
Vallecano
Attack 16th of 20, defence 6th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-2 v Santander 2026-09-05
- L 2-5 at Barcelona 2026-08-31
- D 1-1 v Alaves 2026-08-20
- L 1-2 at Sevilla 2026-08-15
- W 2-1 at Alaves 2026-05-23
From 802 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sat 12 Sep
- Santander vs Alaves · FT 2–1
- Osasuna vs Espanol · FT 0–2
- Ath Bilbao vs Elche · FT 1–1