Padova vs Ascoli prediction
Italy Serie B · Saturday 12 September 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Model called 1X ✓ (home win or draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Padova to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Padova 41% at home, a draw 33% and Ascoli 26%, so its call is 1X: Padova to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 44% / 28% / 27%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.2 for Padova and 0.9 for Ascoli; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 67%. Careful: there is little recent data on Ascoli, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Padova
Attack 19th of 20, defence 5th of 20 in the league.
- L 1-3 at Cremonese 2026-09-06
- D 1-1 v Verona 2026-08-29
- W 1-0 at Pisa 2026-08-23
- W 4-3 at Cesena 2026-05-08
- W 1-0 v Pescara 2026-05-01
Ascoli
Attack 18th of 20, defence 6th of 20 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Benevento 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Carrarese 2026-08-29
- W 2-1 at Verona 2026-08-23
From 793 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie B games on Sat 12 Sep
- Vicenza vs Juve Stabia · FT 1–1
- Sudtirol vs Modena · FT 1–1
- Catanzaro vs Carrarese · FT 1–0
- Cesena vs Cremonese · FT 2–2