Lorient vs Toulouse prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 12 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Lorient to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives Lorient 43% at home, a draw 28% and Toulouse 29%, so its call is 1: Lorient to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 41% / 28% / 31%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lorient and 1.1 for Toulouse; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Lorient
Attack 11th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Lens 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 v Troyes 2026-08-29
- D 0-0 at Nice 2026-08-22
- L 0-2 v Le Havre 2026-05-17
- W 4-0 at Metz 2026-05-10
Toulouse
Attack 12th of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Lille 2026-09-03
- D 2-2 at Brest 2026-08-29
- L 0-2 v Lyon 2026-08-22
- D 0-0 at Nantes 2026-05-17
- W 2-1 v Lyon 2026-05-10
From 640 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sat 12 Sep
- Strasbourg vs Monaco · FT 1–1
- Auxerre vs Nice · FT 1–0
- Le Havre vs Angers · FT 0–0
- Paris FC vs Lyon · FT 0–0