Genoa vs Frosinone prediction
Italy Serie A · Saturday 12 September 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Frosinone to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Genoa 32% at home, a draw 28% and Frosinone 41%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 42% / 28% / 30%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.1 for Genoa and 1.3 for Frosinone; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 58%. Careful: there is little recent data on Frosinone, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Genoa
Attack 16th of 20, defence 15th of 20 in the league.
- L 1-4 v Como 2026-09-04
- L 0-1 at Lazio 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 v Napoli 2026-08-22
- L 0-1 at Lecce 2026-05-24
- L 1-2 v Milan 2026-05-17
Frosinone
Attack 12th of 20, defence 10th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-2 v Venezia 2026-09-06
- W 3-0 at Fiorentina 2026-08-29
- L 0-1 v Juventus 2026-08-23
From 791 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sat 12 Sep
- Lazio vs Milan · FT 2–2
- Atalanta vs Cagliari · FT 1–2