Vallecano vs Santander prediction
Spain La Liga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Vallecano to win as the most likely result (50%). It gives Vallecano 50% at home, a draw 25% and Santander 25%, so its call is 1: Vallecano to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 49% / 26% / 25%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vallecano and 1.0 for Santander; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 54%. Careful: there is little recent data on Santander, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Vallecano
Attack 18th of 20, defence 5th of 20 in the league.
- L 2-5 at Barcelona 2026-08-31
- D 1-1 v Alaves 2026-08-20
- L 1-2 at Sevilla 2026-08-15
- W 2-1 at Alaves 2026-05-23
- W 2-0 v Villarreal 2026-05-17
Santander
Attack 10th of 20, defence 19th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-2 v Elche 2026-08-28
- L 0-1 at Getafe 2026-08-23
- D 2-2 v Villarreal 2026-08-16
From 792 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid · FT 3–0
- Villarreal vs La Coruna · FT 2–3